* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/24/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 94 88 81 66 53 41 34 31 31 25 22 V (KT) LAND 105 100 94 88 81 66 53 41 34 31 31 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 105 98 91 82 74 60 50 42 36 31 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 16 16 18 29 35 45 44 47 43 50 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 12 13 16 10 7 1 2 5 2 4 3 SHEAR DIR 236 221 240 260 258 272 274 273 268 242 221 220 207 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 136 136 134 135 137 142 144 145 145 145 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -54.0 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 68 63 62 62 59 52 45 42 43 50 50 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 20 18 16 12 11 10 10 11 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 76 67 45 43 29 40 53 63 63 76 90 104 83 200 MB DIV 96 90 71 60 45 -2 -33 -23 23 47 70 31 65 700-850 TADV 7 8 17 22 23 1 0 -4 0 2 4 7 17 LAND (KM) 268 222 192 181 167 124 144 191 342 470 560 641 747 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.4 20.4 20.1 20.2 20.6 21.6 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 157.8 157.8 157.7 157.8 157.8 158.4 159.2 160.6 162.4 163.9 165.0 166.0 167.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 5 5 4 4 5 8 8 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 38 38 37 32 17 26 40 28 21 19 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -23. -29. -34. -37. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -14. -20. -23. -24. -24. -25. -30. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -12. -15. -19. -19. -18. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -24. -39. -52. -64. -71. -74. -74. -80. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.5 157.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 474.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX