* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/23/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 109 104 97 90 73 60 48 41 36 35 32 29 V (KT) LAND 115 109 104 97 90 73 60 48 41 36 35 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 115 108 100 92 84 68 56 46 40 35 32 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 14 18 16 25 32 37 43 45 45 45 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 7 10 14 12 10 3 0 3 1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 241 244 232 243 266 267 277 270 271 254 244 236 229 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 136 136 136 135 138 142 144 145 145 146 145 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 69 68 64 61 62 54 47 42 42 44 48 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 23 21 19 15 14 12 12 11 12 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 81 77 67 46 41 38 51 59 72 72 89 92 94 200 MB DIV 77 111 96 70 65 5 -28 -29 2 34 56 32 51 700-850 TADV 4 5 9 17 23 6 0 -2 -3 0 4 5 18 LAND (KM) 288 241 209 197 186 145 184 255 357 476 559 627 711 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.3 20.0 20.0 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.9 20.7 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 157.5 157.6 157.7 157.8 157.8 158.3 159.3 160.7 162.2 163.6 164.7 165.7 166.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 4 6 7 7 6 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 36 41 39 38 38 34 19 32 39 30 22 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -8. -15. -22. -30. -37. -42. -47. -49. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -15. -20. -21. -20. -19. -20. -25. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -14. -17. -18. -18. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -18. -25. -42. -55. -67. -74. -79. -80. -83. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.0 157.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 480.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX