* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/23/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 103 97 88 74 61 49 41 38 36 35 32 V (KT) LAND 115 108 103 97 88 74 61 49 41 38 36 35 32 V (KT) LGEM 115 108 100 92 84 69 57 47 40 35 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 12 12 16 19 31 36 43 44 43 38 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 6 8 9 15 10 6 0 3 6 1 6 SHEAR DIR 247 244 233 232 261 262 273 273 269 256 245 240 249 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 136 134 136 139 143 143 145 147 149 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 63 60 58 48 42 43 46 52 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 24 23 19 17 14 12 11 11 11 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 77 81 75 64 44 35 39 47 59 71 85 92 107 200 MB DIV 75 77 109 92 74 28 -6 -28 -4 20 44 67 33 700-850 TADV 2 3 7 8 17 21 3 -2 -6 0 1 7 10 LAND (KM) 307 258 214 190 189 156 118 159 243 359 471 634 816 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.9 20.4 20.5 20.3 20.1 20.0 20.2 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 157.2 157.3 157.4 157.5 157.7 157.9 158.8 160.0 161.3 162.6 163.8 165.6 167.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 36 38 37 38 37 23 19 35 39 28 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -8. -15. -22. -30. -37. -43. -47. -49. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -12. -16. -18. -18. -17. -18. -22. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -5. -7. -9. -14. -17. -18. -18. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -18. -27. -41. -54. -66. -74. -77. -79. -80. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.6 157.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 464.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX