* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/23/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 117 110 103 98 83 68 55 47 40 37 34 29 V (KT) LAND 125 117 110 103 98 83 68 55 47 40 37 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 125 117 109 100 92 76 63 51 43 36 32 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 10 11 8 15 23 34 44 45 47 48 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 4 7 13 13 10 3 0 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 245 253 254 221 228 269 264 270 272 265 245 236 224 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 136 136 135 135 137 140 143 144 147 147 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 66 68 69 67 64 62 51 43 40 41 46 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 23 21 17 13 11 10 9 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 74 80 83 73 56 32 35 38 50 64 74 93 100 200 MB DIV 55 61 73 103 91 53 11 -36 -33 -2 30 83 49 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 4 6 19 6 -4 -7 -5 0 5 3 LAND (KM) 343 288 243 203 181 194 134 129 168 265 391 531 691 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.4 20.1 20.5 20.5 20.3 20.0 20.1 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 156.7 157.0 157.2 157.4 157.5 157.9 158.3 159.1 160.3 161.6 162.9 164.5 166.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 26 36 38 37 39 35 20 23 40 39 25 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -20. -28. -38. -46. -52. -57. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -14. -20. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -19. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -22. -27. -42. -57. -70. -78. -85. -88. -91. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.0 156.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 455.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX