* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/23/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 117 110 103 98 82 69 56 48 42 37 34 31 V (KT) LAND 125 117 110 103 98 82 69 56 48 42 37 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 125 117 110 102 94 78 64 53 44 38 34 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 14 13 17 20 30 40 45 49 41 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 3 7 11 13 10 3 2 0 6 3 SHEAR DIR 236 246 243 242 228 242 249 261 263 265 257 259 248 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 137 137 136 133 133 137 142 143 143 144 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 64 66 69 68 66 62 59 49 43 41 42 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 22 23 18 14 11 10 10 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 63 71 74 78 64 41 35 38 49 59 67 84 95 200 MB DIV 58 50 52 70 110 66 32 -7 -40 -9 8 20 62 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 2 7 15 16 2 -4 -5 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 374 317 273 216 172 183 111 67 122 182 369 509 605 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.4 20.3 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.0 21.0 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 156.3 156.7 157.1 157.2 157.3 157.8 157.9 158.3 159.4 161.1 163.2 164.6 165.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 5 3 4 7 9 8 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 30 37 34 38 37 34 19 34 28 23 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -28. -38. -46. -53. -57. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -9. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -15. -20. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -7. -12. -16. -18. -19. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -22. -27. -43. -56. -69. -77. -83. -88. -91. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 15.6 156.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX