* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/22/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 128 120 111 104 89 74 63 54 48 43 36 31 V (KT) LAND 135 128 120 111 104 89 74 63 54 48 43 36 31 V (KT) LGEM 135 127 118 110 101 86 72 60 50 42 37 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 15 13 15 22 32 40 46 53 52 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 1 9 11 8 4 1 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 218 229 232 242 233 230 250 261 270 275 267 264 268 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 137 137 137 136 136 141 143 144 146 147 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 60 64 66 66 68 64 61 50 43 40 42 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 20 21 18 15 14 12 11 10 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 60 64 69 74 70 47 27 29 31 46 57 66 84 200 MB DIV 62 52 53 74 85 103 36 27 -13 1 2 1 33 700-850 TADV 2 4 3 1 4 7 12 0 -3 -7 -6 -7 0 LAND (KM) 411 349 301 250 207 179 123 112 145 282 448 610 764 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.7 19.0 20.2 20.9 20.9 20.8 20.7 20.6 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 155.6 156.2 156.7 157.0 157.2 157.6 158.3 159.3 160.6 162.2 163.9 165.5 167.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 18 21 30 37 36 35 20 28 39 26 21 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -11. -15. -25. -35. -45. -54. -61. -66. -69. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -13. -12. -13. -19. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -15. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -24. -31. -46. -61. -72. -81. -87. -92. -99.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 15.2 155.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 521.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX