* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/22/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 128 121 112 106 92 79 66 60 54 48 44 37 V (KT) LAND 135 128 121 112 106 92 79 66 60 54 48 44 37 V (KT) LGEM 135 127 119 111 103 90 77 65 56 49 43 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 11 14 11 21 26 34 43 45 48 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -3 -2 6 10 8 7 1 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 223 214 213 220 230 226 246 263 267 267 263 249 264 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 138 137 137 137 136 135 137 141 143 144 146 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 60 63 67 65 65 61 55 45 40 39 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 20 21 20 18 13 13 12 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 61 57 64 72 72 65 41 33 40 49 56 65 82 200 MB DIV 68 57 62 65 84 105 76 26 8 -21 0 5 18 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 2 2 5 10 14 -1 -6 -5 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 449 384 324 265 216 167 167 84 84 183 336 491 668 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.6 17.2 18.4 19.8 20.7 21.2 21.3 21.1 20.9 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 155.0 155.5 155.9 156.3 156.6 157.3 157.8 158.7 160.0 161.4 162.9 164.4 166.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 30 21 19 21 27 33 38 27 21 36 30 23 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -11. -15. -25. -35. -45. -55. -62. -67. -69. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -10. -9. -10. -15. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -8. -10. -12. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -23. -29. -43. -56. -69. -75. -81. -87. -91. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 14.9 155.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 571.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX