* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/22/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 137 131 125 116 101 86 71 62 52 45 38 30 V (KT) LAND 140 137 131 125 116 101 86 71 62 52 45 38 30 V (KT) LGEM 140 135 127 119 111 97 82 69 58 49 43 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 5 5 12 13 15 26 34 40 45 50 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 -2 1 10 11 8 7 1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 179 209 229 203 203 237 252 261 263 265 265 264 259 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 138 137 136 136 134 134 139 142 144 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 60 57 63 64 64 63 59 56 47 41 41 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 22 21 22 19 14 14 11 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 62 53 52 59 67 71 48 43 41 42 47 56 66 200 MB DIV 63 46 52 58 65 106 97 46 20 -18 -6 7 11 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 2 3 5 6 6 -5 -8 -9 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 511 453 401 334 277 194 142 89 70 100 258 412 564 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.7 19.2 20.5 21.3 21.5 21.1 20.9 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 154.2 154.8 155.4 155.9 156.3 157.0 157.3 158.0 159.2 160.6 162.1 163.6 165.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 29 26 27 37 27 36 21 22 34 23 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -17. -28. -38. -49. -59. -67. -72. -75. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -12. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -8. -11. -15. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -15. -24. -39. -54. -69. -78. -88. -95.-102.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 14.5 154.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -0.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 641.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 2.1% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX