* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/22/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 133 130 124 119 106 92 79 69 60 51 43 35 V (KT) LAND 135 133 130 124 119 106 92 79 69 60 51 43 35 V (KT) LGEM 135 131 125 118 111 100 89 75 64 56 49 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 7 8 12 12 17 28 40 43 52 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -3 -6 -1 5 14 6 3 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 192 190 189 211 198 222 232 253 266 270 263 268 260 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 139 138 137 136 136 134 136 139 142 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 59 60 62 63 62 60 56 51 44 40 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 20 22 22 21 17 15 13 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 63 63 54 56 64 74 65 54 54 52 48 59 65 200 MB DIV 63 37 29 32 70 96 111 70 11 -1 -14 3 7 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 1 4 7 6 6 -4 -7 -9 -5 LAND (KM) 543 483 429 367 313 222 154 133 56 39 168 343 543 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.1 17.2 18.7 20.1 21.1 21.6 21.7 21.6 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 153.6 154.3 154.9 155.4 155.9 156.7 157.3 157.9 158.7 159.9 161.4 163.1 165.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 7 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 31 33 28 26 33 32 37 29 18 28 21 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -24. -34. -45. -54. -62. -67. -70. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -3. -2. -2. -4. -10. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -11. -16. -29. -43. -56. -66. -75. -84. -92.-100. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 14.4 153.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 665.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 61 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX