* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/21/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 133 129 123 115 106 93 81 70 60 51 43 36 V (KT) LAND 135 133 129 123 115 106 93 81 70 60 51 43 36 V (KT) LGEM 135 131 124 116 110 98 89 78 67 57 49 43 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 7 10 16 28 34 42 47 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 -3 -2 0 15 5 4 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 188 184 203 225 223 197 219 242 254 253 263 262 262 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 141 140 137 136 137 135 133 138 141 144 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 61 64 64 62 58 55 47 42 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 23 21 23 22 19 16 14 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 51 55 56 48 49 70 68 65 51 47 38 46 52 200 MB DIV 56 61 25 26 41 100 112 115 41 0 -10 -17 0 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -2 1 3 7 13 4 -4 -6 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 607 547 493 440 391 283 197 168 100 59 76 241 441 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.4 16.4 17.6 19.0 20.4 21.3 21.6 21.6 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 152.7 153.4 154.1 154.7 155.2 156.1 156.9 157.5 157.9 158.8 160.4 162.1 164.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 14 29 32 29 26 36 34 36 27 21 29 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -24. -34. -44. -54. -61. -67. -70. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. -2. -7. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -12. -20. -29. -42. -54. -65. -75. -84. -92. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 14.2 152.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 650.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 72 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX