* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/21/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 132 128 124 118 107 96 87 75 63 56 48 42 V (KT) LAND 130 132 128 124 118 107 96 87 75 63 56 48 42 V (KT) LGEM 130 129 124 118 111 100 92 84 74 64 57 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 8 9 7 7 8 9 19 25 34 36 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 -1 0 0 -4 -1 3 12 5 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 266 226 204 220 221 192 197 207 241 256 258 255 260 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 142 141 138 137 137 137 136 138 140 143 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 54 56 58 60 61 64 63 60 56 51 45 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 19 20 20 22 22 21 17 13 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 41 51 58 59 55 64 68 71 67 56 61 50 63 200 MB DIV 65 37 29 34 36 76 99 114 66 22 -3 -12 -15 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 -1 1 2 7 11 0 -5 -7 -9 LAND (KM) 679 612 552 498 453 345 256 176 183 123 134 174 300 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.8 16.8 18.1 19.4 20.3 20.7 20.9 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 151.8 152.6 153.4 154.1 154.8 155.8 156.6 157.2 157.8 158.7 159.8 161.0 162.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 14 29 34 26 29 38 38 25 16 29 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -20. -30. -40. -49. -56. -62. -64. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. -3. -8. -10. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. -2. -6. -12. -23. -34. -43. -55. -67. -74. -82. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 14.0 151.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 681.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX