* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/21/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 133 134 131 126 116 104 95 87 75 70 61 54 V (KT) LAND 130 133 134 131 126 116 104 95 87 75 70 61 54 V (KT) LGEM 130 131 128 122 115 102 93 84 75 67 60 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 6 4 6 7 8 7 7 20 26 36 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 4 17 11 10 3 2 SHEAR DIR 134 233 192 204 214 221 191 206 236 267 260 259 269 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 142 142 140 138 137 138 138 137 139 143 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 55 53 58 60 61 63 61 59 56 53 49 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 22 22 22 24 24 23 21 16 17 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 52 55 60 58 75 73 72 55 48 46 56 200 MB DIV 82 63 31 35 32 60 76 96 106 42 10 -9 -13 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 0 0 2 2 5 4 5 0 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 754 681 612 557 507 401 301 240 231 196 153 133 238 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.3 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.6 20.5 20.9 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 150.8 151.7 152.6 153.3 154.0 155.4 156.4 157.3 158.0 158.7 159.4 160.4 161.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 18 23 32 28 21 36 42 23 12 19 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -20. -29. -40. -49. -56. -61. -64. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 7. 7. 3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. -2. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 1. -4. -14. -26. -35. -43. -55. -60. -69. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 13.9 150.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 675.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.7% 3.4% 3.5% 3.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 38 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX