* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/21/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 117 116 116 108 100 94 88 79 72 67 64 V (KT) LAND 115 117 117 116 116 108 100 94 88 79 72 67 64 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 114 111 108 101 92 84 77 71 64 58 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 5 3 3 1 9 5 10 18 29 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 0 0 2 1 0 7 12 10 9 7 SHEAR DIR 107 170 175 197 209 240 221 230 230 254 271 261 259 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 142 143 142 140 138 137 139 138 138 140 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.9 -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 54 57 58 60 62 62 60 58 54 53 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 20 22 21 22 25 23 19 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 41 45 42 45 54 59 65 69 68 61 44 39 47 200 MB DIV 45 76 56 35 42 39 59 67 96 84 34 7 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 5 10 1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 836 766 694 637 587 474 391 310 254 270 191 153 189 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.4 17.7 18.9 20.0 20.6 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 149.8 150.8 151.7 152.5 153.3 154.8 156.0 156.9 157.8 158.6 159.4 160.2 161.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 15 18 23 39 23 21 42 30 13 16 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -19. -28. -36. -42. -46. -49. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 5. -1. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 1. -6. -15. -21. -27. -36. -43. -48. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.7 149.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 613.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 31.1% 22.1% 19.8% 19.8% 8.4% 5.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.7% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.3% 8.1% 6.6% 6.6% 2.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 71.0% 21.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX