* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/20/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 117 116 115 110 102 97 92 84 79 73 70 V (KT) LAND 115 117 117 116 115 110 102 97 92 84 79 73 70 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 114 112 110 104 97 92 87 79 71 64 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 6 4 2 1 5 7 7 13 20 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 4 8 10 9 6 SHEAR DIR 357 101 177 211 231 237 333 181 230 216 259 258 265 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 143 142 143 142 141 139 137 138 140 139 138 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 54 52 55 57 62 63 61 61 56 56 52 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 19 21 22 22 22 23 20 19 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 48 46 50 57 64 69 73 66 40 34 33 200 MB DIV 42 55 67 43 49 61 51 62 78 62 39 14 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 11 2 -3 LAND (KM) 939 851 769 699 633 532 423 347 306 290 240 170 144 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.4 15.1 15.9 16.8 18.0 19.4 20.4 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 148.6 149.7 150.7 151.5 152.4 153.9 155.4 156.5 157.5 158.4 159.3 160.0 160.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 13 15 17 31 31 19 29 39 18 14 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -19. -27. -36. -42. -46. -49. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 10. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 2. 0. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 0. -5. -13. -18. -23. -31. -36. -42. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.5 148.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 673.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.6% 16.3% 17.0% 17.0% 12.6% 4.7% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.7% 5.8% 5.7% 5.7% 4.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX