* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/20/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 111 112 112 110 107 100 97 93 89 80 76 75 V (KT) LAND 110 111 112 112 110 107 100 97 93 89 80 76 75 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 109 107 106 101 97 92 88 83 76 68 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 2 5 6 2 3 1 8 5 9 16 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 3 1 5 8 9 10 SHEAR DIR 289 325 12 189 212 185 230 131 206 227 249 272 248 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 142 142 142 142 140 137 137 138 141 144 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 54 52 55 60 63 62 60 60 59 54 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 20 20 23 24 25 26 26 21 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 38 45 47 50 47 54 60 67 73 72 64 47 51 200 MB DIV 43 42 50 56 43 55 38 61 56 73 75 37 9 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 -1 0 0 2 5 5 5 7 13 0 LAND (KM) 993 919 848 768 689 566 468 391 354 345 348 308 213 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.9 17.8 19.1 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 147.7 148.6 149.5 150.5 151.5 153.1 154.6 156.0 157.2 158.2 158.9 160.0 161.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 7 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 13 13 15 21 36 23 19 32 33 20 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -16. -24. -31. -37. -42. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 4. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -10. -13. -17. -21. -30. -34. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.7 147.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 642.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.4% 15.8% 14.4% 13.8% 14.3% 4.8% 1.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.4% 12.4% 4.8% 4.6% 4.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 27.0% 11.0% 9.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX