* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/20/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 107 106 104 103 98 93 88 84 79 72 69 V (KT) LAND 110 108 107 106 104 103 98 93 88 84 79 72 69 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 105 101 99 99 98 93 86 79 71 63 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 5 4 4 6 3 4 7 8 9 19 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -3 -1 0 1 3 3 3 7 9 9 SHEAR DIR 278 288 315 58 120 173 236 220 217 248 273 262 253 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 141 140 139 139 139 138 136 135 136 138 139 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 60 57 56 52 52 56 57 58 57 55 52 48 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 18 22 24 24 24 24 22 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 25 41 49 48 56 64 74 73 80 76 83 72 54 200 MB DIV 25 53 55 66 59 57 70 51 30 72 59 50 8 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 4 6 5 2 5 0 LAND (KM) 1094 983 876 801 730 608 476 411 400 430 496 432 402 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.3 17.3 18.4 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 146.5 147.7 148.8 149.7 150.6 152.2 154.0 155.6 157.1 158.7 160.3 161.5 162.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 17 17 15 13 28 31 21 28 33 38 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -25. -32. -38. -42. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -31. -38. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.7 146.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 621.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 7.2% 5.7% 5.4% 8.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 7.7% 1.9% 1.8% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 52.0% 42.0% 15.0% 15.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX