* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/20/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 103 103 103 98 95 88 83 78 69 62 58 V (KT) LAND 105 104 103 103 103 98 95 88 83 78 69 62 58 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 102 100 98 96 95 89 80 71 62 54 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 3 1 4 5 5 8 7 10 12 15 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -4 -2 1 5 6 6 1 1 9 7 SHEAR DIR 289 264 259 342 39 191 218 252 255 257 267 253 245 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 141 140 139 139 138 137 135 135 137 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 53 52 54 55 57 59 58 56 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 20 21 22 20 24 23 23 22 17 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 17 33 46 44 43 52 63 65 75 79 71 57 25 200 MB DIV 6 29 41 43 43 61 52 44 49 39 52 55 50 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 0 0 5 6 5 6 6 1 -1 4 LAND (KM) 1199 1089 981 896 815 665 523 422 383 373 422 459 441 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.2 17.1 17.9 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 145.3 146.4 147.5 148.5 149.4 151.2 153.0 154.7 156.2 157.7 159.3 160.8 162.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 20 18 18 14 16 33 26 23 32 36 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -21. -28. -34. -38. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 4. 5. 4. 4. -3. -8. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -7. -10. -17. -22. -27. -36. -43. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 13.7 145.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 633.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 7.4% 6.5% 5.9% 6.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 8.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 17.0% 16.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX