* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/19/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 106 104 101 99 93 89 83 80 75 70 67 V (KT) LAND 110 109 106 104 101 99 93 89 83 80 75 70 67 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 104 101 98 95 93 88 82 76 69 63 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 10 8 0 4 6 6 10 12 10 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -5 -6 -7 1 3 7 4 3 0 9 9 SHEAR DIR 292 275 283 280 314 283 265 217 242 233 251 247 250 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 142 142 141 140 140 139 138 136 135 136 138 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 58 57 55 54 57 60 60 61 56 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 18 17 20 22 22 22 23 21 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 5 19 27 39 41 46 56 66 63 76 82 71 51 200 MB DIV 13 9 4 24 15 49 69 89 45 30 54 59 44 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -2 0 3 3 4 6 6 5 0 4 LAND (KM) 1327 1215 1105 1021 939 786 637 509 412 378 385 458 458 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 144.1 145.2 146.3 147.2 148.1 149.9 151.9 153.7 155.3 156.8 158.3 159.8 161.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 22 21 19 16 12 24 33 22 28 32 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -24. -32. -38. -42. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -17. -21. -27. -30. -35. -40. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.4 144.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 536.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 3.9% 1.9% 1.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 5.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 13.0% 42.0% 17.0% 23.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX