* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/19/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 99 98 95 93 91 89 86 86 83 80 76 V (KT) LAND 105 101 99 98 95 93 91 89 86 86 83 80 76 V (KT) LGEM 105 101 97 94 92 89 89 90 89 83 77 70 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 3 6 6 4 1 3 4 3 3 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -6 -6 -2 3 8 6 3 2 3 10 SHEAR DIR 287 284 238 268 281 346 166 185 257 262 280 315 264 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 142 143 143 141 139 141 140 140 137 135 138 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 61 61 59 60 57 56 57 62 63 62 62 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 21 20 21 21 22 22 24 24 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR -14 5 20 31 44 43 50 53 66 73 84 76 62 200 MB DIV 15 10 13 -15 16 30 55 63 75 23 34 70 72 700-850 TADV -4 0 1 0 -1 0 5 7 5 6 3 -4 3 LAND (KM) 1455 1345 1236 1138 1043 884 742 614 514 445 414 454 494 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.7 16.6 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 142.9 144.0 145.1 146.1 147.1 148.9 150.7 152.4 154.1 155.8 157.6 159.3 160.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 20 24 22 17 13 13 33 31 20 31 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -21. -28. -33. -37. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 7. 7. 3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -19. -22. -25. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 13.1 142.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 487.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 5.1% 2.4% 1.7% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX