* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/19/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 98 94 90 83 79 76 72 74 74 74 76 V (KT) LAND 110 104 98 94 90 83 79 76 72 74 74 74 76 V (KT) LGEM 110 104 98 93 89 84 82 80 78 75 73 72 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 12 9 13 12 8 9 9 2 6 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -1 -2 -5 -2 0 -2 2 3 -2 -3 5 SHEAR DIR 276 283 275 277 280 297 254 267 247 213 239 261 249 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 142 143 142 140 140 140 141 139 136 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 62 60 62 63 62 59 57 56 60 64 67 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 14 15 16 16 18 20 19 22 23 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -8 5 22 25 30 32 41 50 61 76 69 61 200 MB DIV 58 13 8 21 26 43 42 32 51 64 62 71 106 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 1594 1462 1333 1241 1150 977 841 712 596 487 422 446 519 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 141.6 142.9 144.1 145.0 146.0 147.9 149.6 151.3 152.9 154.7 156.5 158.3 159.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 9 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 21 18 19 24 18 16 17 22 39 22 19 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -24. -31. -37. -41. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -8. -4. 0. 4. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 8. 9. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -20. -27. -31. -34. -38. -36. -36. -36. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 12.8 141.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 456.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX