* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/19/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 103 97 94 87 80 74 74 72 69 69 68 V (KT) LAND 115 110 103 97 94 87 80 74 74 72 69 69 68 V (KT) LGEM 115 109 102 95 90 84 80 78 76 74 70 67 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 13 8 11 13 7 4 11 6 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -1 5 2 4 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 286 284 279 284 281 304 290 257 285 270 282 265 260 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 140 141 143 141 140 141 141 139 136 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 59 62 62 63 63 61 57 58 61 63 64 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 16 16 18 19 19 20 21 23 22 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -7 -5 7 18 28 32 38 41 45 58 62 50 200 MB DIV 58 77 23 23 24 24 65 42 55 24 56 57 90 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -4 -2 0 0 0 1 4 7 8 6 5 LAND (KM) 1728 1602 1477 1368 1260 1070 907 776 642 521 422 418 468 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 140.3 141.5 142.6 143.7 144.7 146.7 148.5 150.3 152.1 153.9 155.7 157.5 159.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 22 20 17 23 17 17 19 32 28 17 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -28. -36. -41. -46. -49. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -10. -11. -10. -5. 0. 4. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -18. -21. -28. -35. -41. -41. -43. -46. -46. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 12.6 140.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 470.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX