* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/18/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 109 103 97 88 80 74 71 70 64 62 62 V (KT) LAND 120 117 109 103 97 88 80 74 71 70 64 62 62 V (KT) LGEM 120 116 109 102 96 87 82 78 74 71 65 60 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 14 14 10 12 11 9 10 13 13 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 -3 -4 -3 2 4 9 6 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 268 261 269 261 272 267 299 294 283 281 267 252 253 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 141 140 141 141 139 138 139 139 138 136 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 59 60 58 53 51 53 59 64 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 15 16 17 19 20 21 21 23 21 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -3 0 4 16 31 32 38 40 43 33 47 43 200 MB DIV 51 57 41 27 14 16 36 19 50 60 36 52 60 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 1 2 0 4 2 2 4 1 LAND (KM) 1873 1742 1611 1493 1376 1178 974 807 681 554 449 385 410 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.5 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 138.9 140.1 141.3 142.4 143.5 145.4 147.5 149.4 151.1 152.8 154.5 156.3 158.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 13 21 22 18 19 19 18 21 33 22 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -8. -15. -22. -32. -40. -46. -51. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -5. 0. 3. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -11. -17. -23. -32. -40. -46. -49. -50. -55. -58. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 12.4 138.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/18/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 521.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/18/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 33 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX