* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/18/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 123 121 115 108 95 82 75 72 69 64 61 59 V (KT) LAND 120 123 121 115 108 95 82 75 72 69 64 61 59 V (KT) LGEM 120 121 117 110 103 90 82 79 78 74 68 63 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 12 14 11 11 15 7 5 13 13 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 1 2 -2 -4 0 6 6 6 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 291 273 267 276 274 274 295 311 234 256 252 264 255 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 142 142 140 140 142 141 139 138 139 139 136 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 60 59 60 57 53 52 54 60 63 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 17 16 18 20 21 21 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 0 6 9 21 31 31 40 44 38 57 62 200 MB DIV 52 60 54 40 33 28 27 33 62 48 42 34 62 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -4 -3 2 0 2 4 3 3 5 3 LAND (KM) 2019 1885 1752 1616 1481 1285 1092 900 733 597 509 411 364 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.7 15.2 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 137.5 138.8 140.1 141.3 142.5 144.3 146.3 148.4 150.3 152.1 153.7 155.5 157.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 9 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 12 14 22 18 22 17 20 19 28 29 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -15. -22. -31. -40. -46. -51. -54. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -5. 1. 4. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 1. 4. 6. 5. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 1. -5. -12. -25. -38. -45. -48. -51. -56. -59. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 12.2 137.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/18/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 511.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.9% 5.0% 3.5% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.6% 2.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/18/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 11 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX