* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/18/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 121 120 115 108 95 84 77 72 66 63 59 59 V (KT) LAND 115 121 120 115 108 95 84 77 72 66 63 59 59 V (KT) LGEM 115 118 115 108 102 91 82 78 74 69 63 57 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 7 11 11 9 13 12 6 10 16 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 0 0 0 -5 -2 8 8 9 2 1 SHEAR DIR 317 317 281 277 283 277 291 311 232 234 245 266 264 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.7 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 129 130 132 131 134 131 130 132 136 136 134 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 60 58 58 56 52 51 54 60 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 18 18 18 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR -4 2 3 1 4 16 31 28 33 39 38 43 65 200 MB DIV 42 70 58 47 29 38 29 29 6 47 65 43 28 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -4 -4 -4 1 2 3 5 9 7 5 4 LAND (KM) 2152 2005 1859 1720 1583 1343 1100 909 761 623 487 400 418 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 136.3 137.7 139.1 140.3 141.6 143.8 146.2 148.2 149.8 151.6 153.5 155.5 157.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 9 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 12 13 19 21 24 16 20 16 21 23 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -24. -32. -40. -46. -50. -52. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 4. 6. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 5. 0. -7. -20. -31. -38. -43. -49. -52. -56. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 11.9 136.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/18/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 503.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.6% 6.0% 5.3% 4.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 12.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.6% 2.6% 1.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 43.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/18/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 17 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX