* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/18/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 106 106 103 95 91 86 83 78 75 70 69 V (KT) LAND 100 104 106 106 103 95 91 86 83 78 75 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 100 104 104 103 100 94 89 85 81 76 69 61 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 4 3 8 7 9 2 5 11 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 1 0 0 -1 -2 9 10 11 5 3 SHEAR DIR 345 30 344 346 323 291 303 315 329 241 246 267 276 SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.6 27.1 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 130 129 130 131 130 135 129 132 136 135 134 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 61 60 57 57 54 49 49 53 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 19 18 18 17 20 21 22 21 22 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 3 6 6 11 22 32 37 37 39 32 41 200 MB DIV 21 35 57 65 59 32 38 51 18 4 30 40 28 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -5 -4 -4 -2 3 4 6 7 9 7 8 LAND (KM) 2304 2147 1990 1844 1699 1444 1202 985 799 638 498 413 410 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 134.9 136.4 137.9 139.3 140.6 142.9 145.2 147.3 149.2 151.2 153.3 155.2 157.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 13 11 11 10 9 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 10 10 12 14 24 20 21 19 17 20 24 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -15. -21. -28. -32. -36. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 3. -5. -9. -14. -17. -22. -25. -30. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 11.6 134.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/18/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.03 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.89 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 448.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.34 -1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.3% 26.3% 20.0% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.2% 11.7% 10.7% 7.5% 2.0% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 8.2% 9.8% 2.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.5% 15.9% 11.0% 8.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 33.0% 19.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/18/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 22 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX