* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/17/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 100 102 102 96 87 83 79 75 70 64 60 V (KT) LAND 90 96 100 102 102 96 87 83 79 75 70 64 60 V (KT) LGEM 90 96 98 98 96 90 85 79 75 69 63 56 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 2 3 3 5 6 12 11 9 16 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 0 1 -1 -2 0 8 6 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 337 329 354 359 284 282 273 279 301 284 268 268 292 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.7 26.6 27.2 26.7 26.8 27.3 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 131 132 130 129 132 130 136 131 132 137 134 135 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 64 62 61 58 55 50 49 50 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 18 18 18 21 22 21 20 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 6 4 2 3 4 13 26 31 29 36 38 43 32 200 MB DIV 35 29 34 49 73 58 24 45 44 19 -2 9 22 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -5 -2 -1 -3 1 3 4 5 7 2 2 LAND (KM) 2447 2292 2137 1983 1830 1547 1278 1050 869 697 523 427 423 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.8 13.6 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 133.6 135.1 136.5 138.0 139.4 142.1 144.5 146.7 148.7 150.7 153.0 155.0 156.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 10 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 10 11 12 20 19 24 16 18 18 25 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. -26. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 12. 12. 6. -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -26. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 11.3 133.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.13 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.89 8.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 367.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.44 -2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.5% 28.3% 28.1% 20.1% 14.5% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 48.8% 42.2% 40.7% 34.2% 13.3% 14.4% 2.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 30.9% 40.2% 16.0% 13.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 35.4% 36.9% 28.3% 22.5% 9.8% 11.7% 0.8% 0.2% DTOPS: 12.0% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 8 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX