* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/17/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 95 98 99 96 91 87 84 86 84 81 79 V (KT) LAND 85 91 95 98 99 96 91 87 84 86 84 81 79 V (KT) LGEM 85 92 95 95 95 92 89 86 83 79 76 72 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 4 1 4 3 3 4 7 6 11 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 0 -3 -1 3 0 1 9 3 7 9 SHEAR DIR 357 333 330 317 8 333 294 273 300 343 282 293 271 SST (C) 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.5 27.1 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 130 133 130 130 132 129 135 131 133 136 138 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 68 67 68 67 67 64 58 56 54 51 51 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 18 18 18 19 21 21 24 24 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 3 2 1 2 5 11 14 25 29 34 44 56 50 200 MB DIV 61 44 48 45 62 78 42 65 52 35 -1 22 19 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -5 -6 -3 -4 0 5 5 7 6 7 4 LAND (KM) 2571 2447 2294 2137 1981 1699 1419 1172 974 784 624 466 422 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.6 13.4 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 132.1 133.6 135.0 136.5 138.0 140.6 143.1 145.4 147.5 149.6 151.7 154.0 156.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 13 13 11 10 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 10 7 10 10 14 24 20 19 19 15 23 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -19. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 11. 11. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 14. 11. 6. 2. -1. 1. -1. -4. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 11.2 132.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.18 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.80 7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.53 -3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.1% 29.5% 28.2% 20.2% 14.4% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 41.1% 48.9% 42.4% 35.8% 18.1% 16.7% 4.4% 1.0% Bayesian: 34.8% 51.0% 26.7% 19.5% 2.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 34.3% 43.1% 32.4% 25.1% 11.6% 13.2% 1.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 6.0% 10.0% 7.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX