* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/17/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 80 83 86 89 88 85 85 82 78 75 72 V (KT) LAND 70 76 80 83 86 89 88 85 85 82 78 75 72 V (KT) LGEM 70 76 80 83 84 87 87 85 82 78 71 66 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 6 4 1 4 3 7 9 10 7 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 0 0 -4 2 0 2 6 11 5 9 SHEAR DIR 349 357 349 339 223 274 304 307 296 328 305 276 276 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 26.8 26.5 27.1 26.5 27.1 26.6 27.0 26.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 133 130 136 130 136 130 134 126 135 136 138 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 67 66 65 59 55 55 52 50 55 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 16 18 20 22 22 24 25 22 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 3 3 1 0 0 14 19 23 32 33 43 37 34 200 MB DIV 86 75 49 41 41 70 64 54 70 35 18 6 16 700-850 TADV -12 -11 -9 -7 -6 -2 -2 4 8 10 13 12 8 LAND (KM) 2455 2546 2424 2263 2103 1824 1537 1287 1049 837 652 487 349 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.8 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 130.7 132.2 133.6 135.1 136.6 139.2 141.8 144.1 146.3 148.4 150.5 152.7 155.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 13 13 11 11 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 12 8 10 13 22 18 21 13 22 18 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 12. 9. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 18. 15. 15. 12. 8. 5. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 11.3 130.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.31 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.79 8.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.59 -3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.0% 35.0% 32.6% 24.6% 14.8% 22.0% 19.5% 7.8% Logistic: 23.2% 46.5% 36.8% 29.1% 11.9% 18.5% 7.1% 1.5% Bayesian: 23.4% 42.3% 24.4% 14.0% 4.3% 13.8% 1.2% 0.0% Consensus: 24.5% 41.3% 31.3% 22.6% 10.4% 18.1% 9.3% 3.1% DTOPS: 46.0% 52.0% 35.0% 30.0% 23.0% 27.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX