* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/17/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 71 75 79 86 88 88 88 91 88 87 84 V (KT) LAND 60 65 71 75 79 86 88 88 88 91 88 87 84 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 70 73 76 82 86 89 90 90 85 79 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 7 2 1 1 3 3 7 7 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 1 2 3 10 10 14 SHEAR DIR 2 6 1 353 8 296 89 3 340 320 350 317 289 SST (C) 28.2 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.3 26.8 26.7 27.1 26.2 27.1 26.4 26.9 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 140 138 134 128 133 132 136 126 135 128 133 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -53.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 68 66 67 67 67 65 61 58 54 52 49 50 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 17 18 20 20 21 23 26 24 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR -1 1 0 0 0 9 17 21 23 35 44 42 44 200 MB DIV 80 86 79 62 54 58 68 37 49 48 30 -6 16 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -10 -8 -5 -4 -2 0 7 7 7 8 8 LAND (KM) 2355 2451 2539 2452 2306 1995 1687 1426 1195 973 747 564 420 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 129.2 130.6 132.0 133.4 134.7 137.6 140.4 142.8 144.9 147.0 149.3 151.4 153.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 14 14 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 22 13 8 12 14 31 14 19 22 17 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 4. 6. 8. 13. 11. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 19. 26. 28. 28. 28. 31. 28. 27. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.0 129.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 7.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 7.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.63 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.8% 48.3% 37.7% 31.7% 16.7% 27.5% 22.1% 9.5% Logistic: 13.9% 38.1% 26.6% 19.7% 9.2% 19.4% 11.6% 3.1% Bayesian: 10.6% 29.5% 19.7% 11.7% 2.4% 17.4% 1.8% 0.0% Consensus: 15.7% 38.6% 28.0% 21.0% 9.4% 21.4% 11.8% 4.2% DTOPS: 80.0% 85.0% 70.0% 58.0% 46.0% 46.0% 12.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX