* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/16/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 63 67 75 82 87 90 93 93 94 87 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 63 67 75 82 87 90 93 93 94 87 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 61 65 72 80 88 94 94 92 86 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 9 10 10 5 6 7 5 5 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -4 -1 -1 -6 -5 -2 -1 0 0 6 4 SHEAR DIR 37 24 13 8 18 42 25 20 24 23 316 320 292 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.4 26.7 26.7 26.7 27.2 26.4 27.0 26.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 139 139 132 132 132 137 128 134 128 134 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 66 68 69 66 63 58 55 53 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 19 19 19 20 22 24 26 28 28 30 28 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 2 2 2 4 6 17 21 26 29 41 38 200 MB DIV 59 76 99 88 74 60 44 55 47 45 64 45 15 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 -11 -9 -5 -4 -2 0 4 3 7 7 LAND (KM) 2224 2315 2410 2505 2586 2294 2010 1728 1442 1188 963 776 612 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.6 12.0 12.6 13.5 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 127.0 128.3 129.6 131.0 132.3 135.0 137.7 140.3 142.8 145.1 147.4 149.3 151.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 17 20 8 10 14 26 14 17 21 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 25. 32. 37. 40. 43. 43. 44. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 10.5 127.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.53 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.69 -3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 29.1% 26.5% 18.2% 12.3% 21.5% 20.7% 10.0% Logistic: 10.2% 31.9% 18.5% 11.5% 11.9% 9.7% 20.3% 10.1% Bayesian: 7.7% 25.9% 15.3% 8.0% 2.2% 9.2% 4.5% 0.2% Consensus: 11.2% 29.0% 20.1% 12.6% 8.8% 13.5% 15.2% 6.8% DTOPS: 12.0% 60.0% 36.0% 22.0% 10.0% 37.0% 37.0% 47.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX