* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/16/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 65 74 79 84 87 89 89 89 87 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 65 74 79 84 87 89 89 89 87 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 57 61 69 76 81 82 84 82 81 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 10 8 6 5 3 2 4 3 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -5 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 26 38 32 34 15 12 343 299 360 294 258 280 300 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.8 27.1 26.5 26.0 26.9 26.5 26.9 26.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 142 138 133 136 130 125 134 129 133 133 141 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 68 68 67 67 63 58 56 55 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 15 16 18 18 22 22 23 24 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -7 -6 -5 -2 1 3 6 13 21 25 28 41 200 MB DIV 57 72 56 68 80 46 50 44 75 20 34 36 21 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -4 -6 -6 -8 -5 -1 1 2 5 8 LAND (KM) 2153 2228 2307 2398 2493 2452 2157 1863 1567 1302 1076 872 698 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.4 12.0 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.1 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 125.9 127.1 128.2 129.5 130.8 133.5 136.2 138.9 141.6 144.0 146.0 148.0 149.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 25 26 21 11 9 11 21 17 17 10 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 10. 12. 14. 15. 18. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 29. 34. 39. 42. 44. 44. 44. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.4 125.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 28.9% 26.5% 18.2% 12.5% 22.1% 22.9% 11.6% Logistic: 18.5% 49.4% 30.7% 21.2% 19.7% 21.3% 23.8% 13.5% Bayesian: 5.1% 36.5% 19.7% 9.2% 6.0% 21.6% 12.9% 0.5% Consensus: 13.1% 38.3% 25.6% 16.2% 12.7% 21.7% 19.9% 8.5% DTOPS: 10.0% 51.0% 34.0% 20.0% 13.0% 33.0% 28.0% 28.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX