* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 62 68 79 85 91 92 92 95 95 93 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 62 68 79 85 91 92 92 95 95 93 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 56 61 66 75 84 91 90 89 87 85 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 7 11 9 7 8 7 3 6 2 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -3 -6 -4 -2 -5 -4 0 -1 0 2 9 SHEAR DIR 37 12 42 37 46 23 49 6 299 3 26 350 304 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.4 27.2 26.2 27.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 141 138 135 133 132 128 137 126 135 139 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.2 -54.2 -53.3 -53.9 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 69 68 69 68 65 64 61 56 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 16 19 19 23 24 24 26 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -9 -10 -8 -5 0 5 7 9 15 24 33 43 200 MB DIV 61 69 79 66 73 72 63 7 44 39 39 55 41 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -4 -5 -6 -6 -5 -2 1 2 4 11 LAND (KM) 2090 2163 2239 2315 2394 2578 2305 2029 1756 1489 1219 973 762 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.2 11.8 12.2 12.8 13.5 14.3 14.9 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 126.1 127.2 128.4 129.5 132.2 134.8 137.4 139.9 142.3 144.7 147.0 149.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 22 25 26 19 8 9 13 26 13 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 23. 34. 40. 46. 47. 47. 50. 50. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.4 125.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 -4.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.6% 34.0% 28.0% 19.5% 13.3% 23.8% 30.0% 11.5% Logistic: 29.7% 56.8% 38.9% 29.0% 24.9% 31.5% 38.9% 22.0% Bayesian: 14.1% 54.5% 36.8% 20.8% 16.0% 35.4% 16.2% 0.6% Consensus: 20.8% 48.4% 34.6% 23.1% 18.1% 30.2% 28.4% 11.4% DTOPS: 32.0% 50.0% 35.0% 20.0% 11.0% 54.0% 67.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX