* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 55 62 67 77 87 91 91 92 95 93 91 V (KT) LAND 40 47 55 62 67 77 87 91 91 92 95 93 91 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 51 57 63 73 83 89 90 88 86 83 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 7 10 9 8 5 5 2 5 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -5 -3 3 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 59 53 57 46 29 40 32 14 314 334 9 273 291 SST (C) 27.5 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.6 26.9 27.1 26.2 26.3 26.7 26.9 26.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 144 144 145 141 134 136 127 128 131 133 125 133 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 70 70 72 72 69 69 66 61 59 57 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 14 14 14 18 19 20 21 23 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -17 -14 -12 -9 0 7 15 9 14 16 25 33 200 MB DIV 59 83 88 88 57 70 33 64 42 66 67 60 39 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 -3 -7 -5 -1 0 3 4 LAND (KM) 1999 2073 2150 2227 2307 2463 2465 2182 1897 1634 1415 1174 943 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.8 11.2 11.8 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.2 14.8 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 123.9 125.0 126.1 127.2 128.4 130.7 133.2 135.8 138.4 140.8 142.7 144.9 147.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 13 13 13 13 11 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 18 21 25 21 13 8 11 15 32 13 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 21.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 6. 7. 10. 13. 16. 16. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 22. 27. 37. 47. 51. 51. 52. 55. 53. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.6 123.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 7.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -4.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.1% 49.5% 32.5% 20.4% 14.2% 26.2% 34.1% 14.2% Logistic: 41.0% 67.0% 54.5% 43.7% 34.9% 40.6% 46.7% 30.6% Bayesian: 19.9% 61.8% 47.1% 32.0% 18.1% 42.5% 24.6% 0.5% Consensus: 27.0% 59.4% 44.7% 32.0% 22.4% 36.4% 35.2% 15.1% DTOPS: 12.0% 27.0% 19.0% 12.0% 5.0% 52.0% 72.0% 77.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/15/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX