* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142018 08/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 51 57 67 75 86 90 95 98 100 97 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 51 57 67 75 86 90 95 98 100 97 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 47 52 62 72 82 87 88 86 84 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 4 8 10 8 5 2 2 3 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -2 -3 -5 -2 -4 -2 1 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 69 67 77 62 52 51 46 37 356 55 14 310 270 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.2 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 144 145 144 136 133 135 133 129 126 125 126 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -53.6 -54.2 -53.5 -53.9 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 69 71 70 69 68 63 59 56 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 12 14 14 14 19 20 21 22 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -19 -19 -18 -13 -1 1 11 16 19 22 31 39 200 MB DIV 42 58 71 72 81 69 53 55 60 58 52 45 35 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -5 -7 -3 0 5 4 LAND (KM) 1933 2011 2094 2168 2246 2403 2548 2350 2065 1805 1581 1343 1120 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.9 11.3 11.9 12.7 13.4 14.2 14.9 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 123.0 124.2 125.3 126.4 127.5 129.7 131.9 134.3 136.8 139.1 141.0 143.1 145.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 12 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 17 18 19 22 20 8 10 12 12 23 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 12. 12. 12. 11. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 9. 12. 15. 16. 20. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 22. 32. 40. 51. 55. 60. 63. 65. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.7 123.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 FOURTEEN 08/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -4.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 27.0% 24.7% 16.9% 11.3% 20.2% 21.7% 12.3% Logistic: 9.7% 37.3% 24.5% 15.0% 12.7% 17.5% 34.0% 26.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 16.2% 7.2% 2.0% 1.6% 8.5% 10.0% 1.0% Consensus: 8.0% 26.8% 18.8% 11.3% 8.5% 15.4% 21.9% 13.2% DTOPS: 12.0% 40.0% 31.0% 19.0% 8.0% 47.0% 71.0% 76.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 FOURTEEN 08/15/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX