* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142018 08/15/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 42 48 59 68 77 85 86 87 87 85 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 42 48 59 68 77 85 86 87 87 85 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 53 63 72 82 82 78 72 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 5 4 9 8 5 3 4 5 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -3 -2 -5 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 4 4 SHEAR DIR 61 65 69 85 75 41 57 44 298 266 250 235 238 SST (C) 27.7 28.0 27.5 27.7 27.4 27.4 26.5 28.2 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 140 141 138 138 129 147 139 137 135 127 123 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 68 68 69 69 67 65 61 57 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 14 14 15 18 19 19 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -17 -20 -21 -17 -7 2 6 14 10 24 31 44 200 MB DIV 31 43 54 64 60 80 95 41 50 40 63 30 56 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -5 -4 -1 1 6 LAND (KM) 1832 1927 2012 2087 2165 2307 2477 2508 2242 1973 1710 1463 1235 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.5 12.3 13.2 14.2 15.1 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.9 124.1 125.2 126.3 128.4 130.7 132.9 135.2 137.5 139.7 141.8 143.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 11 13 12 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 14 17 19 21 19 15 8 12 10 10 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 12. 9. 6. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 6. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 18. 29. 38. 47. 55. 56. 57. 57. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 121.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 FOURTEEN 08/15/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -3.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 22.2% 21.3% 14.6% 9.4% 18.3% 20.8% 12.4% Logistic: 5.3% 31.5% 19.2% 11.3% 9.1% 16.7% 34.7% 34.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 1.9% 4.0% 0.5% Consensus: 4.9% 19.7% 13.9% 8.7% 6.3% 12.3% 19.8% 15.7% DTOPS: 7.0% 22.0% 12.0% 5.0% 1.0% 27.0% 29.0% 51.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 FOURTEEN 08/15/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX