* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142018 08/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 49 58 67 75 81 86 88 88 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 49 58 67 75 81 86 88 88 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 47 55 63 71 78 82 84 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 10 10 7 6 0 2 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -5 -5 -5 -7 -3 -6 -1 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 65 60 65 67 64 28 56 44 59 99 176 171 133 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.7 29.2 27.1 27.1 27.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 140 141 138 136 131 158 136 135 141 134 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.6 -53.9 -54.7 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 68 69 71 71 71 69 66 62 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -15 -19 -18 -16 -10 -5 6 15 10 9 16 10 200 MB DIV 9 38 50 54 49 61 62 59 24 32 53 64 52 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -4 -5 -4 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1737 1819 1902 2001 2104 2255 2401 2574 2402 2142 1892 1630 1376 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 10 11 12 12 12 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 11 11 13 18 21 24 19 10 10 12 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 24. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 14. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 9. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 28. 37. 45. 51. 56. 58. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 120.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 FOURTEEN 08/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 -2.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 19.8% 13.1% 11.9% 0.0% 15.0% 17.2% 11.2% Logistic: 1.5% 8.6% 4.2% 1.8% 1.6% 3.8% 11.3% 24.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% Consensus: 2.5% 9.6% 5.8% 4.6% 0.5% 6.3% 9.6% 12.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 8.0% 4.0% 1.0% 6.0% 7.0% 30.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 FOURTEEN 08/15/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX