* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP142017 09/03/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 16 22 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 2 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 236 236 211 191 183 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.6 20.9 20.9 20.6 20.0 18.9 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 67 70 70 67 61 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.9 -50.0 -49.8 -49.7 -49.8 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 57 54 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 14 13 12 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -17 -16 -9 -2 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 11 13 19 18 14 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -6 -4 1 1 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 76 71 117 184 251 326 406 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.5 30.1 30.7 31.2 31.9 32.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.4 117.2 118.3 119.3 121.7 123.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -11. -9. -7. -4. -1. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 4. -4. -14. -23. -28. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -11. -18. -26. -34. -42. -49. -53. -58. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.8 115.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 09/03/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 58.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 121.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 09/03/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##