* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP142017 09/02/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 29 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 29 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 34 31 29 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 11 13 14 30 30 34 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 2 0 -1 -6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 252 243 238 212 179 159 159 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.7 20.5 21.0 20.8 20.4 19.0 18.5 18.8 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 68 66 72 70 65 61 61 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -49.7 -49.5 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 57 59 57 51 51 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 15 13 13 12 11 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 0 -23 -11 0 0 11 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 12 4 15 20 6 15 16 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -7 -3 -2 8 -2 13 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 40 46 69 132 195 264 320 425 530 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.2 29.8 30.5 31.1 32.1 32.6 33.3 34.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.6 116.5 117.6 118.6 120.6 122.8 124.9 126.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -14. -13. -12. -9. -6. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 4. -4. -15. -24. -29. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 7. 5. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -14. -22. -29. -38. -47. -54. -60. -65. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.5 114.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 09/02/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 36.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 123.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 09/02/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##