* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP142017 09/02/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 33 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 31 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 10 9 19 29 37 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 0 1 1 0 -6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 268 243 242 231 176 172 157 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 20.8 20.6 21.0 20.9 19.8 18.5 18.6 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 69 67 71 70 61 61 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -49.7 -49.9 -50.2 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 2 1 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 58 57 58 56 53 50 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 17 15 13 12 11 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 9 0 -21 -16 -6 -1 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 7 16 12 16 24 22 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -6 -8 -6 0 5 6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -40 59 64 82 139 268 276 376 518 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.3 29.0 29.6 30.2 31.4 32.4 33.0 33.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.7 115.6 116.6 117.5 119.6 121.7 123.9 126.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -11. -11. -10. -7. -4. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 5. -2. -13. -21. -26. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -14. -21. -27. -35. -42. -48. -52. -54. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.6 113.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 09/02/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 23.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 138.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 09/02/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##