* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP142017 09/02/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 43 40 37 31 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 42 39 36 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 39 40 37 34 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 14 8 7 11 24 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 0 3 3 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 266 277 262 249 210 171 152 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 23.2 20.7 20.7 21.0 20.5 18.8 18.2 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 95 68 68 71 67 61 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.5 -50.3 -50.2 -50.3 -50.0 -49.8 -50.3 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 4 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 58 59 59 59 59 55 54 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 17 16 13 12 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 8 7 0 -9 0 -4 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 21 1 9 9 24 8 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -10 -8 -9 -1 3 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -11 -29 53 61 87 195 234 284 457 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.7 28.5 29.1 29.6 30.7 32.4 33.1 33.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.2 114.0 114.8 115.7 116.6 118.4 120.6 122.8 125.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -14. -16. -16. -15. -12. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 0. -9. -16. -20. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -5. -8. -14. -22. -29. -38. -43. -47. -50. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.8 113.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 09/02/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 162.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 09/02/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##