* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP142017 09/02/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 45 42 36 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 39 35 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 45 36 38 35 30 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 13 14 10 5 8 13 25 32 30 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 1 -1 1 0 0 -2 -5 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 253 270 284 282 241 173 162 154 139 122 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 25.4 23.1 20.8 20.7 20.9 19.8 18.4 18.6 18.6 18.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 117 93 69 68 70 61 62 61 60 59 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -50.1 -50.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 3 4 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 59 59 58 56 53 50 46 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 20 19 17 14 12 13 12 14 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 27 11 13 1 -3 1 -1 -10 -9 25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 40 26 4 0 19 28 7 26 3 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -10 -10 -9 -6 -6 1 6 16 6 -13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 26 -11 -33 46 88 148 259 276 380 516 613 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.8 27.6 28.2 28.8 30.0 31.4 32.5 33.4 33.9 34.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.3 114.0 114.9 115.7 117.5 119.5 121.9 124.4 126.5 127.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 10 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -11. -12. -14. -13. -11. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 4. -4. -12. -17. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -12. -11. -13. -10. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -3. -9. -16. -22. -32. -39. -46. -49. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.0 112.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 09/02/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.81 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 167.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 12.5% 10.4% 9.4% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 4.2% 3.5% 3.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 09/02/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##