* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP142017 09/01/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 49 46 40 35 27 23 23 22 21 20 V (KT) LAND 50 45 46 39 35 33 28 20 16 16 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 45 44 42 34 33 28 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 7 11 11 7 7 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 129 162 225 251 261 257 187 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 27.8 27.0 25.7 23.5 20.6 21.0 19.9 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 143 134 120 97 67 72 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.2 -49.9 -50.2 -50.2 -49.9 -50.0 -49.6 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 4 3 4 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 61 57 60 59 55 52 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 26 22 20 17 14 10 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 44 47 27 9 -7 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 76 58 -12 11 18 21 18 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 1 -4 -9 -9 -8 -8 -3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -10 -42 11 0 -40 92 139 272 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.0 25.9 26.7 27.4 28.6 29.8 31.1 32.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.6 112.3 113.1 113.9 115.5 117.3 119.5 121.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 10 10 10 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. -10. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -3. -5. -11. -15. -20. -18. -17. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -4. -10. -15. -23. -27. -27. -28. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.1 110.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 09/01/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 168.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 20.1% 15.1% 11.7% 11.1% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 09/01/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##