* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP142017 09/01/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 61 62 59 53 43 36 32 27 23 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 50 45 46 43 37 27 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 56 45 45 43 34 31 27 24 22 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 1 4 6 4 10 9 14 16 16 12 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 10 7 0 1 0 0 2 -3 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 253 238 228 121 183 197 237 200 188 183 167 187 272 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.0 25.8 21.0 20.9 20.8 20.0 19.4 19.1 19.5 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 142 134 121 71 70 69 60 59 59 60 61 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -50.0 -50.5 -50.2 -50.0 -49.9 -49.7 -49.8 -49.5 -50.2 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 4 3 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 62 61 61 59 60 55 54 44 38 33 32 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 26 25 20 18 13 10 11 12 13 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 61 49 46 51 39 18 -9 15 1 27 11 6 -8 200 MB DIV 70 43 54 62 0 8 12 20 7 16 16 -9 -10 700-850 TADV 4 4 4 0 -6 -8 -7 -1 -2 6 1 4 -1 LAND (KM) 29 -4 -50 15 8 5 73 187 325 407 391 479 644 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.3 25.1 25.8 26.5 27.8 29.2 30.1 30.5 31.0 31.6 31.6 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.2 111.6 112.3 113.0 114.7 116.2 118.0 119.8 121.4 122.5 124.0 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 2 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -8. -12. -13. -14. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -3. -7. -14. -18. -17. -15. -13. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 7. 4. -2. -12. -19. -23. -28. -32. -35. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.4 110.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 09/01/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 196.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.1 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.8% 32.5% 23.4% 19.3% 17.5% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 5.0% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 12.7% 8.6% 6.7% 5.9% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 09/01/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##