* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP142017 09/01/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 63 68 68 62 53 44 39 39 31 23 20 V (KT) LAND 55 60 51 46 47 35 32 22 18 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 59 52 46 46 36 34 29 26 24 21 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 4 3 3 3 4 5 1 3 5 9 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 6 6 0 0 -1 0 4 4 6 5 SHEAR DIR 243 207 228 239 12 302 278 300 297 197 159 165 226 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 27.8 27.2 24.5 20.7 20.9 20.9 20.3 20.0 20.0 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 148 142 136 107 67 69 69 63 60 59 62 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -49.8 -50.5 -49.9 -49.9 -49.7 -49.7 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 6 3 4 2 3 1 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 65 63 62 63 62 60 57 52 46 39 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 26 27 26 20 15 12 11 13 11 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 66 62 57 61 59 32 9 5 24 28 27 -11 -5 200 MB DIV 87 58 46 54 60 13 10 12 16 8 4 -1 -17 700-850 TADV 5 5 3 0 -1 1 -6 -5 0 1 5 -8 5 LAND (KM) 17 10 -11 -42 5 -48 67 60 156 265 417 519 569 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.6 24.2 25.0 25.8 27.3 28.5 29.4 30.0 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.6 111.0 111.6 112.2 113.6 115.0 116.2 117.6 119.0 120.7 122.2 123.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 6 2 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. -6. -13. -18. -20. -16. -18. -18. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 13. 7. -2. -11. -16. -16. -24. -32. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.9 110.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 09/01/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 9.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.06 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 6.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 162.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 3.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.7% 50.6% 36.2% 27.4% 20.2% 25.5% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 11.6% 15.8% 9.7% 4.0% 1.1% 6.2% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.3% 10.7% 3.1% 1.7% 0.5% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.9% 25.7% 16.3% 11.0% 7.3% 999.0% 5.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 09/01/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##