* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP142017 08/31/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 64 67 68 64 60 48 39 28 22 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 61 64 56 48 43 39 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 60 63 55 48 49 39 33 27 22 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 4 4 6 7 5 7 14 10 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 2 0 3 -1 2 2 4 1 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 99 114 248 261 246 280 263 266 215 183 190 198 195 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.5 26.2 21.4 20.9 20.8 20.2 20.1 20.0 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 145 139 125 75 70 68 60 59 59 61 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.0 -50.5 -50.4 -50.0 -49.7 -49.4 -49.4 -49.4 -49.1 -49.3 -49.6 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 5 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 68 64 62 63 61 59 55 56 52 50 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 27 26 26 20 18 12 9 6 6 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR 69 81 77 69 65 48 33 9 12 -17 10 -15 -14 200 MB DIV 122 107 31 31 37 24 4 24 14 -4 4 5 -1 700-850 TADV 4 2 6 1 3 6 -2 -8 -1 0 2 3 2 LAND (KM) 55 21 5 -9 -30 -6 25 66 187 286 360 473 530 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.1 23.7 24.4 25.1 26.6 28.0 29.3 30.1 30.4 30.1 30.1 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.4 110.7 111.3 111.8 112.9 114.4 116.2 118.0 119.3 120.0 121.3 123.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 4 4 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 6 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -5. -8. -9. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -9. -12. -20. -24. -27. -26. -24. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 12. 13. 9. 5. -7. -16. -27. -33. -39. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.4 110.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 08/31/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 9.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 8.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 6.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 165.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 3.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.5% 52.3% 39.5% 32.0% 20.5% 27.0% 18.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.9% 16.4% 10.0% 3.4% 0.8% 10.6% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 22.6% 28.6% 11.8% 7.9% 2.6% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.3% 32.4% 20.4% 14.4% 8.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 08/31/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##