* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP142017 08/31/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 50 53 55 58 55 54 44 38 35 31 27 V (KT) LAND 40 44 50 53 55 43 35 30 26 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 48 49 39 33 29 29 26 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 10 2 5 8 11 9 7 3 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 3 1 0 -1 0 0 0 2 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 21 341 105 136 162 311 299 282 310 307 271 238 249 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.3 27.3 24.6 20.8 21.2 21.0 20.6 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 150 151 147 137 108 68 72 70 65 62 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -50.6 -50.2 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -49.9 -49.9 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 72 71 68 65 64 59 61 56 56 51 50 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 26 25 25 22 16 14 9 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 51 53 72 80 76 73 35 22 -1 8 13 24 5 200 MB DIV 108 103 104 87 34 47 15 4 20 3 5 -8 -10 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 1 2 4 -2 0 -3 1 0 3 3 LAND (KM) 223 139 56 11 2 -28 -27 -36 55 118 200 296 391 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.7 22.4 22.9 23.3 24.6 26.6 27.8 28.3 28.8 29.4 29.6 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.3 111.2 112.5 113.7 115.0 116.4 117.8 119.0 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 6 5 6 9 10 7 6 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 14 14 8 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 3. 4. 2. -6. -8. -15. -16. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 13. 15. 18. 15. 14. 4. -2. -5. -9. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.0 109.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 08/31/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.13 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 89.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.9% 35.7% 24.2% 20.6% 17.8% 25.4% 21.4% 9.9% Logistic: 20.5% 45.7% 31.3% 20.3% 8.6% 30.4% 16.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 8.9% 27.8% 6.9% 2.9% 0.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 16.1% 36.4% 20.8% 14.6% 9.1% 19.1% 12.8% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 08/31/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##