* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP142017 08/31/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 50 56 53 53 49 45 38 32 26 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 50 47 39 33 30 29 23 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 43 39 34 31 28 30 27 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 4 6 0 5 5 5 10 15 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 1 0 5 -1 0 3 1 5 0 SHEAR DIR 47 67 73 102 132 223 156 289 307 256 245 258 268 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 27.2 23.9 20.7 21.4 21.2 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 151 151 151 149 135 101 67 74 71 67 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -50.2 -50.8 -49.8 -50.4 -50.0 -50.0 -49.9 -50.0 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 7 5 6 4 4 2 2 0 1 700-500 MB RH 79 76 74 72 69 63 61 58 52 49 46 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 21 22 20 20 16 13 9 8 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 61 60 77 87 68 63 29 17 -1 21 8 14 200 MB DIV 130 118 127 120 106 25 23 33 30 3 0 -12 -18 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -2 3 1 0 2 -3 -2 -2 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 296 230 163 97 33 -8 -22 -13 -46 72 161 239 322 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.7 25.0 26.4 27.6 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.3 109.5 109.8 110.0 110.5 111.2 112.4 113.8 115.3 116.8 118.0 119.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 16 15 15 2 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 19. 19. 18. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. -4. -8. -13. -14. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 15. 21. 18. 18. 14. 10. 3. -3. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.4 109.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 08/31/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.81 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 61.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.5% 45.3% 26.8% 21.4% 18.9% 26.8% 35.2% 12.0% Logistic: 27.1% 65.4% 53.4% 43.5% 29.5% 59.9% 47.4% 2.1% Bayesian: 6.7% 32.0% 9.3% 3.4% 1.7% 2.8% 1.6% 0.1% Consensus: 17.4% 47.6% 29.8% 22.8% 16.7% 29.8% 28.1% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 08/31/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##