* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142017 08/30/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 48 50 47 49 43 44 35 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 48 50 47 49 43 44 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 30 29 28 26 25 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 19 10 6 10 7 5 4 8 6 9 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -1 0 2 3 4 1 7 5 7 SHEAR DIR 72 76 80 114 110 112 148 171 197 249 272 239 235 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.1 25.7 23.9 23.4 23.1 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 151 149 146 141 134 119 100 95 92 81 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.3 -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 84 82 82 79 76 70 60 53 48 45 45 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 17 17 19 17 16 14 15 12 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 64 52 53 72 70 72 89 78 64 45 30 22 11 200 MB DIV 115 100 99 143 114 107 70 33 22 19 11 7 2 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -9 -1 -2 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 386 388 397 375 311 171 122 123 92 179 223 252 345 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.6 20.1 21.4 22.3 23.3 24.4 25.3 25.7 26.5 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.8 110.4 111.0 111.9 113.1 114.4 115.8 117.1 118.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 23 21 19 10 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 14. 20. 25. 27. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 5. 4. 1. 3. -1. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 23. 25. 22. 24. 18. 19. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.1 108.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 FOURTEEN 08/30/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.78 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 17.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 6.5% 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 10.0% 17.4% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% Consensus: 0.2% 9.9% 6.0% 0.5% 0.2% 9.1% 11.7% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 FOURTEEN 08/30/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##