* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142017 08/30/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 34 40 46 52 51 51 49 48 44 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 34 40 46 52 51 51 49 48 44 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 32 31 30 28 26 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 12 9 8 11 2 4 5 5 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 0 -2 3 2 4 2 3 7 10 SHEAR DIR 81 61 70 97 101 81 109 89 108 243 320 326 272 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.3 26.3 24.9 23.9 23.6 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 154 151 147 144 136 125 110 100 99 86 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.7 -50.3 -50.8 -50.2 -50.1 -49.6 -49.9 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 5 7 5 6 4 4 1 1 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 80 77 73 65 52 51 48 46 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 17 19 19 20 17 17 16 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 57 65 54 60 80 54 102 72 82 50 49 35 41 200 MB DIV 128 121 108 106 142 103 96 2 -11 23 20 4 -10 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -7 -4 0 -4 0 -1 0 2 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 355 356 357 370 337 224 138 125 107 141 204 249 388 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.9 21.9 23.0 23.9 24.7 25.2 26.0 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.2 108.6 109.1 109.5 110.3 110.8 111.6 112.7 113.7 114.7 116.5 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 29 26 24 12 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 406 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 28. 29. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 6. 6. 8. 4. 5. 3. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 27. 26. 26. 24. 23. 19. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 107.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 FOURTEEN 08/30/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.27 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.81 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 15.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.1% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 18.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 9.7% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6% 23.7% 29.9% 6.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 10.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.5% 1.6% 2.3% Consensus: 0.5% 13.8% 7.2% 0.8% 0.2% 14.8% 16.6% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 FOURTEEN 08/30/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##