* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982019 07/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 19 19 20 21 21 18 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 19 19 20 21 21 18 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 11 11 21 21 25 26 21 18 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 1 7 3 -2 -2 1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 10 342 318 308 299 298 310 312 326 309 273 269 270 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.0 26.3 25.7 24.7 24.2 23.9 24.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 148 147 148 145 127 121 109 103 98 101 102 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 69 69 66 63 60 57 53 48 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 8 5 5 1 -10 -17 -22 -43 -42 -26 -25 -13 200 MB DIV 28 31 26 27 64 115 88 25 9 -10 -38 -24 -41 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 -1 -6 -12 -10 -6 -3 -8 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 1943 2016 2081 2143 2194 2271 2288 2228 2154 2036 1939 1912 1937 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.5 13.5 15.2 17.3 19.3 20.5 21.1 20.9 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.4 126.5 127.6 128.6 130.6 132.5 133.8 134.0 133.5 132.8 132.3 132.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 8 5 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 41 29 19 14 15 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 27. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -2. -5. -8. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 124.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982019 INVEST 07/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982019 INVEST 07/18/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##